Scotland’s hopes of reaching the World Cup knockout rounds are now entirely out of their own hands following a 3-0 defeat to Brazil.
The result in their final group-stage game means Steve Clarke’s men must rely on other results to progress as one of the eight best third-placed teams.
Of the 12 sides that finish third across all groups, eight will advance to the last 32, giving Scotland a route through despite the defeat.
Scotland currently sit on three points with a goal difference of -3, a figure that took a significant hit from the Brazil loss.
According to Opta, teams with three points and a goal difference of -3 have just a 42% chance of making the last 32.
That figure rises to 63% for -2 and 84% for -1, illustrating just how costly that heavy Brazil defeat could prove for Clarke’s side.
If teams are level on points in the third-place standings, goal difference becomes the deciding factor in determining which eight sides advance.
As things stand, five third-placed teams are ranked below Scotland, while five others share the same points tally, with four of those five still having a game remaining.
Scotland fans will be watching Group D closely, where Australia and Paraguay meet, with the losers finishing on three points and a draw leaving both on four.
In Group E, Ecuador and Curacao each have one point, meaning failure to win against Germany and Ivory Coast respectively would leave the third-placed finisher below Scotland’s total.
Scotland will hope second-placed Japan can beat Sweden convincingly in Group F, as a single point for Sweden would leave the third-placed team on at least four points.
The Group G fixture between Egypt and Iran is also significant, as an Egypt win would ensure the third-placed team there finishes below Scotland’s three-point mark.
In Group H, Scotland fans will be cheering for Spain to beat Uruguay, which would limit the third-placed finisher to just two points and help Scotland’s cause.
A draw between Senegal and Iraq in Group I would leave the group’s third-placed side on just one point, another welcome outcome for Scotland.
Austria and Algeria meet in Group J with both sides on three points, and Scotland would not want that game to end in a draw and push a side above them.
In Group K, Uzbekistan sit on three points but hold a goal difference of -7, meaning they would need a big win over DR Congo to leapfrog Scotland in the standings.
Group L could also have a bearing, with a point or more for Croatia against Ghana potentially leaving the third-placed team there on four points, bad news for Scotland.
A big Ghana win, combined with Panama failing to beat England in Group L, would represent Scotland’s ideal mathematical scenario heading into the final round of group fixtures.
Scotland may now face an agonising wait until Sunday to learn whether they will reach the knockout stages of a World Cup for the very first time.
