Scotland fans have wasted no time crunching the numbers after their historic first World Cup win in 36 years.
Steve Clarke’s side sit top of Group C after beating Haiti in Boston, with Brazil and Morocco trailing behind them.
The victory was nervy and far from convincing, but it delivered three precious points in Scotland’s opening fixture.
For a nation more accustomed to heartbreak than hope at major tournaments, the question now shifts to whether this is enough to build on.
According to Football Meets Data, a goal difference of -1 gives Scotland an 87.5% chance of progressing as one of the best third-placed teams.
That figure drops sharply to 69.4% at -2 and further to 47.3% if Scotland’s goal difference slips to -3.
Scotland’s attack struggled badly against Haiti, recording an expected goals figure of just 1.05 at the Boston Stadium throughout the entire match.
Aside from John McGinn’s goal and Scott McTominay striking the post, Clarke’s side created very little in open play.
Set-piece deliveries were particularly poor, resulting in a set play expected goals figure of zero across the ninety minutes.
Their pass completion rate against the 83rd-ranked team in the world was only 82%, with more passes going backwards than forwards throughout.
“Winning games at major tournaments isn’t something Scotland do regularly,” said former Scotland talisman James McFadden on BBC Scotland.
“The resilience shown – that’s what has been forged in this group. It wasn’t enjoyable but I would have taken an ugly 1-0 win beforehand.”
McFadden acknowledged the road ahead will be difficult but was encouraged by how the squad coped with the pressure of the occasion.
“The next two games are going to be tough, but they have dealt with the pressure of this game,” he added.
Morocco visit next on Friday, and a draw would put Scotland in a very strong position heading into their final group game.
Put simply, Clarke’s team are a clean sheet away from virtually securing a place in the last 32 for the first time in their history.
Brazil, meanwhile, were far from impressive in New Jersey, with Carlo Ancelotti’s side forced to come from behind to snatch a draw.
Former Scotland winger Pat Nevin offered a measured but quietly optimistic assessment of where Scotland now stand.
“I don’t think anybody is going to be quaking in their boots to play Scotland,” said Nevin. “But what they don’t know is we can do a lot better than that, and that’s maybe our secret weapon.”
Historical data provides some useful context for Scotland’s qualification hopes at this expanded 48-team tournament.
In each of the seven previous tournaments since 1998, the fifth-best third-placed team has always finished on at least three points, with goal difference proving decisive.
Colombia progressed in 1998 with three points and a -2 goal difference, while Poland did the same in 2006 under identical circumstances.
Scotland must therefore not only collect points but protect their goal difference in every remaining minute of group stage football.
