The expanded 48-team World Cup has thrown up a fascinating series of results, with several lower-ranked nations taking points from elite opposition.
Cape Verde, Curacao, Ghana and South Africa, ranked 64th, 81st, 65th and 54th respectively, have all managed to frustrate far higher-ranked sides in the tournament.
Spain, Ecuador, England and South Korea have all dropped points against these nations, causing genuine shockwaves across the competition.
A closer analysis of those matches reveals a set of common tactical patterns that explain why the upsets have occurred with such regularity.
Cape Verde’s 0-0 draw against Spain was perhaps the most striking result and also the most tactically disciplined performance of the tournament so far.
The third-smallest nation in World Cup history neutralised Spain through a compact 4-5-1 defensive shape, keeping the gaps between their midfield and defensive lines extremely tight throughout.
When Spain attempted to lure Cape Verde out of their structure by playing backwards, the underdogs refused to take the bait and held their shape with remarkable composure.
This same disciplined approach was evident in Ghana’s display against England, where Jordan Ayew took a higher position to man-mark Elliot Anderson while the rest of the side sat in two compact lines just outside their penalty area.
The numbers back this up strikingly, with Cape Verde’s PPDA in their draw against Spain recorded at 51.2 compared to Spain’s 5.9, illustrating just how deliberately passive the underdogs were.
In the first 15 minutes of Ghana’s match against England, their PPDA figure reached an extraordinary 62, confirming their tactical intent to absorb rather than press.
Both sides did increase their pressing as matches progressed, suggesting a calculated shift in approach when chasing a winning goal late on.
Where underdogs have been undone, however, the reasons are equally instructive, with Saudi Arabia’s defeat to Spain exposing a fundamental weakness in deep defensive setups.
Despite fielding five defenders, Saudi Arabia were repeatedly drawn towards the ball, leaving the width of the pitch exposed and allowing Spain to switch play effectively through Lamine Yamal and Pedro Porro.
Porro exploited a two-against-one overload on the right side to deliver the cross that led to Mikel Oyarzabal tapping in Spain’s third goal from a central position.
Sweden suffered similarly against the Netherlands, losing 5-1 as their 5-3-2 shape left just three midfielders to cover the width, with Denzel Dumfries making repeated forward runs that went completely unpicked.
Sweden only improved when they switched to a 4-5-1 shape later in the game, the same formation that had served Cape Verde and Ghana so well earlier in the tournament.
The more adventurous underdogs have also found ways to threaten on the ball, with South Africa taking 14 shots to South Korea’s seven despite holding just 31 percent possession.
Short goal-kicks have been a deliberate weapon for sides including Cape Verde, Iraq and South Africa, drawing high presses from bigger nations before chipping the ball into pockets of space.
When South Korea pressed South Africa high, the Bafana Bafana stuck to their principles, played forward with precision and scored the goal that secured their progression to the next stage.
Beyond tactics, individual brilliance has played its part, with 40-year-old Cape Verde keeper Vozinha producing a stunning shot-stopping display against Spain that captured the imagination of fans worldwide.
Curacao’s keeper Eloy Room matched the World Cup record for most saves made in a single game at 15, a heroic effort that earned his nation their first ever point at the tournament.
